Ahorro Fiscal Precautorio en Países Intensivos en Recursos Naturales
Rodrigo Cerda; Felipe Larrain B. y Felipe Larraín C.
Revista "El Trimestre Económico", forthcoming
Abstract: Background: This paper studies the effect of the volatility of fiscal revenues (induced by volatility in natural resource prices) on public saving in the case of economies dependent on natural resources.
Methodology: A theoretical model is used that extends the work of Van der Ploeg and Venables (2011). Later, an econometric analysis is performed with data from panels of two different data samples. We find evidence in favor of the hypothesis.
Results: It is found that the greater variance in fiscal revenues the greater should be the level of net assets of the fiscal, due to precautionary saving.
Conclusions: The volatility of fiscal revenues in countries exposed to commodities leads governments to make precautionary savings and to have higher levels of fiscal saving.
Key Words: Fiscal revenue volatility, precautionary saving, fiscal saving
JEL:H0, H20, H39