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Seminarios académicos y conferencias

Hernan Seoane, Associate Professor, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid

"Trend Shocks and Sudden Stops" (con Emircan Yurdagul)

9 Agosto 2018 - 17:00

Sala 209, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Administrativas UC

Abstract: Sudden Stops are characterized by large output drops, current account reversals and real exchange rate depreciation followed by a slow recovery, a pattern that has proven to be hard to capture with standard open economy models. This paper extends the standard models with endogenous collateral constraints to include permanent income (trend) shocks and studies the optimal policy design in this setting. We find that shocks to the trend play an important role in generating a Sudden Stop followed by a slow recovery, a result that is also supported by the data. This type of economy generates overborrowing during bad times, but also during good times due to the existence of permanent shocks, making the optimal tax less procyclical.