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Followed by Violence: Forced Immigration and Homicides

Abstract: We study the causal impact of large inflows of internal displaced people (IDP) on homicides in Colombian host municipalities during the period 1999-2014. Following two distinct instrumental variable approaches while leveraging on high quality and high frequency administrative panel data on IDP flows and homicides across Colombian municipalities, we identify an economically sizable impact: a standard deviation increase in inflows, increases the homicides rate by 0.6 standard deviations. This effects is larger in cities and among men. While IDP inflows are associated with increasing homicide rates for all the age groups, we document that the standardized effects are larger for young individuals (i.e., age groups 15-19 and 20-24 years old).

Keywords: Internal Displaced People, Migration, Violence, Crime.
JEL: J1, O15, R23, R31