Javier Garcia Cicco, Universidad de San Andres

Paper: Foreign Exchange Interventions and Foreign Shocks

Abstract: We study the effects of exchange rate interventions in Uruguay on relevant macroeconomic variables such as the exchange rate, inflation, activity, and interest rates. Instead of attempting to identify exogenous variations in the intervention policy (a frequent strategy in the related literature, but that raises many endogeneity concerns), we investigate the effect of interventions in dampening the impact of external shocks that are relevant determinants of exchange rate movements. This estimation is carried out through a novel econometric tool called constrained impulse response functions, which allows to construct counterfactual scenarios that are locally valid (i.e. marginal effects around average responses). We find that interventions can help dampen exchange rate effects, and may have non-trivial effects inflation as well, but generally no consequences in terms of activity. Importantly, these effects depend on the type and sign of the external shock under consideration.