Laia Bosque-Mercader, Universitat de Barcelona

Paper: Childcare and family dynamics

Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of public early childcare availability on family dynamics. Using administrative data on births, abortions, marriages, and divorces, we employ a two-way fixed effects approach to exploit temporal and spatial variation in childcare coverage rates induced by the expansion of public childcare slots for three-year-olds in Spain during the 1990s. Our results reveal that a 10 percentage point increase in childcare coverage raises fertility rates by 1.1%, mainly driven by higher-order births, and reduces abortion rates by 6.6%, particularly among mothers who contribute around 37% more births. We also find that expanded childcare availability increases marriage rates and decreases divorce rates, suggesting that accessible childcare stabilizes family structures. These results highlight how public childcare policies can influence not only fertility decisions but also broader family formation and stability. The study provides novel evidence on the role of childcare subsidies in shaping demographic trends, with significant implications for low-fertility settings, such as Spain.