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Macroeconomía

Theodoros Arvanitopoulos, Cardiff University


Paper: Energy-Saving Technological Change: Evidence from the UK Industrial Sector

Abstract: To what extent technological innovation drives energy efficiency improvement? We develop a simple and transparent macroeconometric procedure to decompose the long-run trend of a variable into its main long-run determinants. We employ this procedure on half a century of quarterly aggregate data for the UK industrial sector.

We estimate that 61% of the long-run trend in energy demand is attributable to
technological change that improved energy efficiency, with a constant rate of energy
saving of 0.5% per quarter. We find evidence that prolonged episodes of rapidly
rising energy prices are systematically followed by an acceleration in technological
innovation.

28 de Julio de 2026

13:40 a 14:40


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